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This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic end-to-end all-sky imager-based nowcasting with horizons of up to 30 min using an ImageNet pre-trained deep neural network. The method involves a two-stage approach. First, a backbone model is trained to estimate the irradiance from all-sky imager (ASI) images. The model is then extended and retrained on image and parameter sequences for forecasting. An open access data set is used for training and evaluation. We investigated the impact of simultaneously considering global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) on training time and forecast performance as well as the effect of adding parameters describing the irradiance variability proposed in the literature. The backbone model estimates current GHI with an RMSE and MAE of 58.06 and 29.33 W m−2, respectively. When extended for forecasting, the model achieves an overall positive skill score reaching 18.6 % compared to a smart persistence forecast. Minor modifications to the deterministic backbone and forecasting models enables the architecture to output an asymmetrical probability distribution and reduces training time while leading to similar errors for the backbone models. Investigating the impact of variability parameters shows that they reduce training time but have no significant impact on the GHI forecasting performance for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting while simultaneously forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI reduces the forecast performance.
Integrating physical simulation data into data ecosystems challenges the compatibility and interoperability of data management tools. Semantic web technologies and relational databases mostly use other data types, such as measurement or manufacturing design data. Standardizing simulation data storage and harmonizing the data structures with other domains is still a challenge, as current standards such as the ISO standard STEP (ISO 10303 ”Standard for the Exchange of Product model data”) fail to bridge the gap between design and simulation data. This challenge requires new methods, such as ontologies, to rethink simulation results integration. This research describes a new software architecture and application methodology based on the industrial standard ”Virtual Material Modelling in Manufacturing” (VMAP). The architecture integrates large quantities of structured simulation data and their analyses into a semantic data structure. It is capable of providing data permeability from the global digital twin level to the detailed numerical values of data entries and even new key indicators in a three-step approach: It represents a file as an instance in a knowledge graph, queries the file’s metadata, and finds a semantically represented process that enables new metadata to be created and instantiated.
Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is crucial for the integration of solar energy into the power grid, power system planning, and the operation of solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with its solar radiation (WRF-Solar) extension, has been used to forecast solar irradiance in various regions worldwide. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting in West Africa, specifically in Ghana, has not been studied. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for GHI forecasting in Ghana, focusing on 3 health centers (Kologo, Kumasi and Akwatia) for the year 2021. We applied a two one-way nested domain (D1=15 km and D2=3 km) to investigate the ability of the WRF solar model to forecast GHI up to 72 hours in advance under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF operational forecasts. In addition, the optical aerosol depth (AOD) data at 550 nm from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) were considered. The study uses statistical metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model with the observational data obtained from automatic weather stations in the three health centers in Ghana. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of the WRF-Solar model for forecasting GHI in West Africa, particularly in Ghana, and provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management of in the region.
A Fourier scatterometry setup is evaluated to recover the key parameters of optical phase gratings. Based on these parameters, systematic errors in the printing process of two-photon polymerization (TPP) gray-scale lithography three-dimensional printers can be compensated, namely tilt and curvature deviations. The proposed setup is significantly cheaper than a confocal microscope, which is usually used to determine calibration parameters for compensation of the TPP printing process. The grating parameters recovered this way are compared to those obtained with a confocal microscope. A clear correlation between confocal and scatterometric measurements is first shown for structures containing either tilt or curvature. The correlation is also shown for structures containing a mixture of tilt and curvature errors (squared Pearson coefficient r2 = 0.92). This compensation method is demonstrated on a TPP printer: a diffractive optical element printed with correction parameters obtained from Fourier scatterometry shows a significant reduction in noise as compared to the uncompensated system. This verifies the successful reduction of tilt and curvature errors. Further improvements of the method are proposed, which may enable the measurements to become more precise than confocal measurements in the future, since scatterometry is not affected by the diffraction limit.
Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in the Allgäu region in Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 min resolution along with a non-linear photovoltaic module temperature model, global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 5.79 W m−2 (7.35 W m−2) under clear (cloudy) skies, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 min power data with a linear temperature model the mean bias error is 5.88 and 41.87 W m−2 under clear and cloudy skies, respectively.
During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a 1D radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals and data from the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken-cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.
Electrical signal transmission in power electronic devices takes place through high-purity aluminum bonding wires. Cyclic mechanical and thermal stresses during operation lead to fatigue loads, resulting in premature failure of the wires, which cannot be reliably predicted. The following work presents two fatigue lifetime models calibrated and validated based on experimental fatigue results of an aluminum bonding wire and subsequently transferred and applied to other wire types. The lifetime modeling of Wöhler curves for different load ratios shows good but limited applicability for the linear model. The model can only be applied above 10,000 cycles and within the investigated load range of R = 0.1 to R = 0.7. The nonlinear model shows very good agreement between model prediction and experimental results over the entire investigated cycle range. Furthermore, the predicted Smith diagram is not only consistent in the investigated load range but also in the extrapolated load range from R = −1.0 to R = 0.8. A transfer of both model approaches to other wire types by using their tensile strengths can be implemented as well, although the nonlinear model is more suitable since it covers the entire load and cycle range.
Battery lifespan estimation is essential for effective battery management systems, aiding users and manufacturers in strategic planning. However, accurately estimating battery capacity is complex, owing to diverse capacity fading phenomena tied to factors such as temperature, charge-discharge rate, and rest period duration. In this work, we present an innovative approach that integrates real-world driving behaviors into cyclic testing. Unlike conventional methods that lack rest periods and involve fixed charge-discharge rates, our approach involves 1000 unique test cycles tailored to specific objectives and applications, capturing the nuanced effects of temperature, charge-discharge rate, and rest duration on capacity fading. This yields comprehensive insights into cell-level battery degradation, unveiling growth patterns of the solid electrolyte interface (SEI) layer and lithium plating, influenced by cyclic test parameters. The results yield critical empirical relations for evaluating capacity fading under specific testing conditions.
This paper presents a novel approach to address noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) issues in electrically assisted bicycles (e-bikes) caused by the drive unit. By investigating and optimising the structural dynamics during early product development, NVH can decisively be improved and valuable resources can be saved, emphasising its significance for enhancing riding performance. The paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the e-bike drive unit’s mechanical interactions among relevant components, culminating—to the best of our knowledge—in the development of the first high-fidelity model of an entire e-bike drive unit. The proposed model uses the principles of elastic multi body dynamics (eMBD) to elucidate the structural dynamics in dynamic-transient calculations. Comparing power spectra between measured and simulated motion variables validates the chosen model assumptions. The measurements of physical samples utilise accelerometers, contactless laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) and various test arrangements, which are replicated in simulations and provide accessibility to measure vibrations onto rotating shafts and stationary structures. In summary, this integrated system-level approach can serve as a viable starting point for comprehending and managing the NVH behaviour of e-bikes.
This paper addresses the classification of Arabic text data in the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP), with a particular focus on Natural Language Inference (NLI) and Contradiction Detection (CD). Arabic is considered a resource-poor language, meaning that there are few data sets available, which leads to limited availability of NLP methods. To overcome this limitation, we create a dedicated data set from publicly available resources. Subsequently, transformer-based machine learning models are being trained and evaluated. We find that a language-specific model (AraBERT) performs competitively with state-of-the-art multilingual approaches, when we apply linguistically informed pre-training methods such as Named Entity Recognition (NER). To our knowledge, this is the first large-scale evaluation for this task in Arabic, as well as the first application of multi-task pre-training in this context.