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Adoption of Modern Maize Varieties in India: Insights Based on Expert Elicitation Methodology
(2018)
The clear-sky radiative effect of aerosol–radiation interactions is of relevance for our understanding of the climate system. The influence of aerosol on the surface energy budget is of high interest for the renewable energy sector. In this study, the radiative effect is investigated in particular with respect to seasonal and regional variations for the region of Germany and the year 2015 at the surface and top of atmosphere using two complementary approaches.
First, an ensemble of clear-sky models which explicitly consider aerosols is utilized to retrieve the aerosol optical depth and the surface direct radiative effect of aerosols by means of a clear-sky fitting technique. For this, short-wave broadband irradiance measurements in the absence of clouds are used as a basis. A clear-sky detection algorithm is used to identify cloud-free observations. Considered are measurements of the short-wave broadband global and diffuse horizontal irradiance with shaded and unshaded pyranometers at 25 stations across Germany within the observational network of the German Weather Service (DWD). The clear-sky models used are the Modified MAC model (MMAC), the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM) v6.1, the Meteorological–Statistical solar radiation model (METSTAT), the European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA), Heliosat-1, the Center for Environment and Man solar radiation model (CEM), and the simplified Solis model. The definition of aerosol and atmospheric characteristics of the models are examined in detail for their suitability for this approach.
Second, the radiative effect is estimated using explicit radiative transfer simulations with inputs on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, trace gases and aerosol from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis. The aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter) are first evaluated with AERONET direct sun and inversion products. The largest inconsistency is found for the aerosol absorption, which is overestimated by about 0.03 or about 30 % by the CAMS reanalysis. Compared to the DWD observational network, the simulated global, direct and diffuse irradiances show reasonable agreement within the measurement uncertainty. The radiative kernel method is used to estimate the resulting uncertainty and bias of the simulated direct radiative effect. The uncertainty is estimated to −1.5 ± 7.7 and 0.6 ± 3.5 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively, while the annual-mean biases at the surface, top of atmosphere and total atmosphere are −10.6, −6.5 and 4.1 W m−2, respectively.
The retrieval of the aerosol radiative effect with the clear-sky models shows a high level of agreement with the radiative transfer simulations, with an RMSE of 5.8 W m−2 and a correlation of 0.75. The annual mean of the REari at the surface for the 25 DWD stations shows a value of −12.8 ± 5 W m−2 as the average over the clear-sky models, compared to −11 W m−2 from the radiative transfer simulations. Since all models assume a fixed aerosol characterization, the annual cycle of the aerosol radiation effect cannot be reproduced. Out of this set of clear-sky models, the largest level of agreement is shown by the ESRA and MRM v6.1 models.
The implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the conservation and protection of nature are among the greatest challenges facing urban regions. There are few approaches so far that link the SDGs to natural diversity and related ecosystem services at the local level and track them in terms of increasing sustainable development at the local level. We want to close this gap by developing a set of indicators that capture ecosystem services in the sense of the SDGs and which are based on data that are freely available throughout Germany and Europe. Based on 10 SDGs and 35 SDG indicators, we are developing an ecosystem service and biodiversity-related indicator set for the evaluation of sustainable development in urban areas. We further show that it is possible to close many of the data gaps between SDGs and locally collected data mentioned in the literature and to translate the universal SDGs to the local level. Our example develops this set of indicators for the Bonn/Rhein-Sieg metropolitan area in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, which comprises both rural and densely populated settlements. This set of indicators can also help improve communication and plan sustainable development by increasing transparency in local sustainability, implementing a visible sustainability monitoring system, and strengthening the collaboration between local stakeholders.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.
Diversity of Insects in Nature protected Areas (DINA): an interdisciplinary German research project
(2021)
Insect declines and biodiversity loss have attracted much attention in recent years, but lack of comprehensive data, conflicting interests among stakeholders and insufficient policy guidance hinder progress in preserving biodiversity. The project DINA (Diversity of Insects in Nature protected Areas) investigates insect communities in 21 nature reserves in Germany. All selected conservation sites border arable land, with agricultural practices assumed to influence insect populations. We taught citizen scientists how to manage Malaise traps for insect collection, and subsequently used a DNA metabarcoding approach for species identification. Vegetation surveys, plant metabarcoding as well as geospatial and ecotoxicological analyses will help to unravel contributing factors for the deterioration of insect communities. As a pioneering research project in this field, DINA includes a transdisciplinary dialogue involving relevant stakeholders such as local authorities, policymakers, and farmers, which aims at a shared understanding of conservation goals and action pathways. Stakeholder engagement combined with scientific results will support the development of sound policy recommendations to improve legal frameworks, landscape planning, land use, and conservation strategies. With this transdisciplinary approach, we aim to provide the background knowledge to implement policy strategies that will halt further decline of insects in German protected areas.
The temperature of photovoltaic modules is modelled as a dynamic function of ambient temperature, shortwave and longwave irradiance and wind speed, in order to allow for a more accurate characterisation of their efficiency. A simple dynamic thermal model is developed by extending an existing parametric steady-state model using an exponential smoothing kernel to include the effect of the heat capacity of the system. The four parameters of the model are fitted to measured data from three photovoltaic systems in the Allgäu region in Germany using non-linear optimisation. The dynamic model reduces the root-mean-square error between measured and modelled module temperature to 1.58 K on average, compared to 3.03 K for the steady-state model, whereas the maximum instantaneous error is reduced from 20.02 to 6.58 K.
Education for Sustainable Development (ESD, SDG 4) and human well-being (SDG 3) are among the central subjects of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this article, based on the Questionnaire for Eudaimonic Well-Being (QEWB), we investigate to what extent (a) there is a connection between EWB and practical commitment to the SDGs and whether (b) there is a deficit in EWB among young people in general. We also want to use the article to draw attention to the need for further research on the links between human well-being and commitment for sustainable development. A total of 114 students between the ages of 18 and 34, who are either engaged in (extra)curricular activities of sustainable development (28 students) or not (86 students), completed the QEWB. The students were interviewed twice: once regarding their current and their aspired EWB. Our results show that students who are actively engaged in activities for sustainable development report a higher EWB than non-active students. Furthermore, we show that students generally report deficits in EWB and wish for an improvement in their well-being. This especially applies to aspects of EWB related to self-discovery and the sense of meaning in life. Our study suggests that a practice-oriented ESD in particular can have a positive effect on the quality of life of young students and can support them in working on deficits in EWB.
For several decades, farmers have been mixing rock powders with livestock slurry to reduce its NH3 emissions and increase its nutrient content. However, mixing rock powders with slurry is controversial, and there is currently no scientific evidence for its effects on NH3 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or on changes in its nutrient content due to element release from rock powders. The major aim of this study was therefore to analyse the effects of mixing two commercially established rock powders with cattle slurry on NH3, CO2, N2O and CH4 emissions, and on nutrient release over a course of 46 days. We found that rock powders did not significantly affect CO2 emission rates. NH3 and N2O emission rates did not differ significantly up until the end of the trial, when the emission rates of the rock powder treatments significantly increased for NH3 and significantly decreased for N2O, respectively, which coincided with a reduction of the slurry crust. Cumulative NH3 emissions did not, however, differ significantly between treatments. Unexpected and significant increases in CH4 emission rates occurred for the rock powder treatments. Rock powders increased the macro- and micronutrient content of the slurry. The conflicting results are discussed and future research directions are proposed.
Erfassung der N-Dynamik verschiedener Wirtschaftsdünger in Wintergerste und Senf im Dürrejahr 2018
(2019)
Accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for integrating solar energy into the power grid and operating solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with its solar radiation extension (WRF-Solar) has been used to forecast solar irradiance in different regions around the world. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model to the prediction of GHI in West Africa, particularly Ghana, has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for predicting GHI in Ghana, focusing on three automatic weather stations (Akwatia, Kumasi and Kologo) for the year 2021. We used two one-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate the ability of the fully coupled WRF-Solar model to forecast GHI up to 72-hour ahead under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF high-resolution operational forecasts. Our findings reveal that the WRF-Solar model performs better under clear skies than cloudy skies. Under clear skies, Kologo performed best in predicting 72-hour GHI, with a first day nRMSE of 9.62 %. However, forecasting GHI under cloudy skies at all three sites had significant uncertainties. Additionally, WRF-Solar model is able to reproduce the observed GHI diurnal cycle under high AOD conditions in most of the selected days. This study enhances the understanding of the WRF-Solar model’s capabilities and limitations for GHI forecasting in West Africa, particularly in Ghana. The findings provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management in the region.
Background:
Access to electricity is one of the enabling factors for healthcare service provision. From the sustainable development perspective, an essential requirement for improving health and caring for our environment is to assure that health facilities have sufficient and reliable access to the supply of clean and sustainable energy. The objective of this work is to investigate the users’ perceptions of electricity needs and electricity sources and the way those influence different attributes and their relevance for the diffusion of renewable electricity systems in healthcare facilities.
Methods:
To identify preferences and choices, Stated Choice modelling was applied as the use of solar PV systems in health facilities is not widespread in Ghana. This method allows to present the respondents with hypothetical options, which have attributes close to the real world. Four attributes were considered, namely electricity system configuration, initial investment cost, monthly costs, and improvements to the reliability of the electricity supply.
Results:
The largest share of the 200 health facilities interviewed reported services provision as outpatient treatment, provision of maternity services and family planning, which are relatively low electricity-intensive services. However, there was a general perception that increased reliability on the electricity supply can improve the health service provision and operation of the facilities. Moreover, despite that preferences towards the solar systems, the initial investment costs of the solar systems is still perceived as preventing the adoption of this technology
Conclusion:
From this study we can conclude that health facilities in Ghana rely greatly on the national supply which has issues with reliability, compromising the delivery of healthcare services. However, the adoption of alternative electricity technologies based on renewable sources is not likely to occur at the facility level without the engagement of other actors that can help bridging the barriers for adoption, as initial investment costs.
This paper aims to assess farmers’ challenges in enhancing biodiversity. The so-called “trilemma” (WBGU 2021) of land use stems from the multiple demands made on land for the benefit of mitigating climate change, securing food, and maintaining biodiversity. Agriculture is accused of maladministration, causing soil contamination, animal cruelty, bee mortality, and climate change. However, farmers play a key role in overcoming upcoming sustainability challenges. While their supportive role is urgently needed, farmers find themselves caught between a “rock” and a ”hard place”. Consumers call for sustainable production and affordable food products without pesticide residues, demanding enough for all. Farmers are restricted by the wants and needs of consumers who are influenced by interest groups and exposed to interdependent direct and indirect influencing factors. They need to balance the scrutiny of the critical public as well as the regulatory control. In this paper, we collected and surveyed the data of farmers within or close to the 21 selected nature protected areas of the DINA (Diversity of Insects in Nature protected Areas) Project, using a mixed methods approach with a semi-structured questionnaire considering issues’ interdependencies and the complexity of today´s problems. The conflicts and obstacles faced by farmers were assessed. The results reflect the farmers’ willingness and the importance of receiving appreciation for implementing biodiversity measures. These results, complemented by a following quantitative study, are the basis for recommendations for policymakers and farmers in all German nature protected areas.
Green infrastructure improves environmental health in cities, benefits human health, and provides habitat for wildlife. Increasing urbanization has demanded the expansion of urban areas and transformation of existing cities. The adoption of compact design in urban planning is a recommended strategy to minimize environmental impacts; however, it may undermine green infrastructure networks within cities as it sets a battleground for urban space. Under this scenario, multifunctionality of green spaces is highly desirable but reconciling human needs and biodiversity conservation in a limited space is still a challenge. Through a systematic review, we first compiled urban green space's characteristics that affect mental health and urban wildlife support, and then identified potential synergies and trade-offs between these dimensions. A framework based on the One Health approach is proposed, synthesizing the interlinkages between green space quality, mental health, and wildlife support; providing a new holistic perspective on the topic. Looking at the human-wildlife-environment relationships simultaneously may contribute to practical guidance on more effective green space design and management that benefit all dimensions.
Pursuant to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations, one pivotal target is to halt biodiversity loss. This paper’s objective is to analyze why and how German farmers hesitate to implement more than the prescriptive measures with regard to cross compliance and direct payments under the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and what their aspirations are for possible incentives to bring biodiversity into focus. By applying a mixed methods approach, we investigate the experience of individual farmers by means of a qualitative approach followed by a quantitative study. This analysis sheds light on how farmers perceive indirect influencing factors and how these factors play a non-negligible role in farmers´ commitment to biodiversity. Economy, policy and society are intertwined and need to be considered from a multi-faceted perspective. In addition, an in-depth analysis is conducted based on online focus group discussions to determine whether farmers accept financial support, focusing on both action- and success-oriented payments. Our results highlight the importance of paying attention to the heterogeneity of farmers, their locations and, consequently, farmers’ different views on indirect drivers influencing agricultural processes, showing the complexity of the problem. Although farmers’ expectations can be met with financial allocations, other aspects must also be taken into account.
Estimates of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from reanalysis and satellite-based data are the most important information for the design and monitoring of PV systems in Africa, but their quality is unknown due to the lack of in situ measurements. In this study, we evaluate the performance of hourly GHI from state-of-the-art reanalysis and satellite-based products (ERA5, CAMS, MERRA-2, and SARAH-2) with 37 quality-controlled in situ measurements from novel meteorological networks established in Burkina Faso and Ghana under different weather conditions for the year 2020. The effects of clouds and aerosols are also considered in the analysis by using common performance measures for the main quality attributes and a new overall performance value for the joint assessment. The results show that satellite data performs better than reanalysis data under different atmospheric conditions. Nevertheless, both data sources exhibit significant bias of more than 150 W/m2 in terms of RMSE under cloudy skies compared to clear skies. The new measure of overall performance clearly shows that the hourly GHI derived from CAMS and SARAH-2 could serve as viable alternative data for assessing solar energy in the different climatic zones of West Africa.
In January 2015, German retail and industry jointly started a sector-wide initiative ("Initiative Tierwohl" - ITW) to improve animal welfare standards. The principle of the ITW is communicated mostly via the websites of ITW and its participating companies. However, uncertainty remained whether or not these websites provide the necessary information consumers need on the ITW products. Based on Schwartz's basic human values, different types of consumers were identified by a cluster analysis (ward-method, k-means). The results showed that depending on expressed meta‐values (Self-Transcendence/Openness to Change Self-Enhancement or Conservation), respondents had different specific information sources and needs. Online sources were rarely mentioned, the majority of consumers referred to brochures, flyers and interpersonal contacts.
Impact of atmospheric aerosols on photovoltaic energy production - Scenario for the Sahel zone
(2017)
Photovoltaic (PV) energy is one option to serve the rising global energy need with low environmental impact. PV is of particular interest for local energy solutions in developing countries prone to high solar insolation. In order to assess the PV potential of prospective sites, combining knowledge of the atmospheric state modulating solar radiation and the PV performance is necessary. The present study discusses the PV power as function of atmospheric aerosols in the Sahel zone for clear-sky-days. Daily yields for a polycrystalline silicon PV module are reduced by up to 48 % depending on the climatologically-relevant aerosol abundances.
Atmospheric aerosols affect the power production of solar energy systems. Their impact depends on both the atmospheric conditions and the solar technology employed. By being a region with a lack in power production and prone to high solar insolation, West Africa shows high potential for the application of solar power systems. However, dust outbreaks, containing high aerosol loads, occur especially in the Sahel, located between the Saharan desert in the north and the Sudanian Savanna in the south. They might affect the whole region for several days with significant effects on power generation. This study investigates the impact of atmospheric aerosols on solar energy production for the example year 2006 making use of six well instrumented sites in West Africa. Two different solar power technologies, a photovoltaic (PV) and a parabolic through (PT) power plant, are considered. The daily reduction of solar power due to aerosols is determined over mostly clear-sky days in 2006 with a model chain combining radiative transfer and technology specific power generation. For mostly clear days the local daily reduction of PV power (at alternating current) (PVAC) and PT power (PTP) due to the presence of aerosols lies between 13 % and 22 % and between 22 % and 37 %, respectively. In March 2006 a major dust outbreak occurred, which serves as an example to investigate the impact of an aerosol extreme event on solar power. During the dust outbreak, daily reduction of PVAC and PTP of up to 79 % and 100 % occur with a mean reduction of 20 % to 40 % for PVAC and of 32 % to 71 % for PTP during the 12 days of the event.