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In the last two decades, studies that analyse the political economy of sustainable energy transitions have increasingly become available. Yet very few attempts have been made to synthesize the factors discussed in the growing literature. This paper reviews the extant empirical literature on the political economy of sustainable energy transitions. Using a well-defined search strategy, a total of 36 empirical contributions covering the period 2008 to 2022 are reviewed full text. Overall, the findings highlight the role of vested interest, advocacy coalitions and green constituencies, path dependency, external shocks, policy and institutional environment, political institutions and fossil fuel resource endowments as major political economy factors influencing sustainable energy transitions across both high income countries, and low and middle income countries. In addition, the paper highlights and discusses some critical knowledge gaps in the existing literature and provides suggestions for a future research agenda.
Photovoltaic (PV) power data are a valuable but as yet under-utilised resource that could be used to characterise global irradiance with unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. The resulting knowledge of atmospheric conditions can then be fed back into weather models and will ultimately serve to improve forecasts of PV power itself. This provides a data-driven alternative to statistical methods that use post-processing to overcome inconsistencies between ground-based irradiance measurements and the corresponding predictions of regional weather models (see for instance Frank et al., 2018). This work reports first results from an algorithm developed to infer global horizontal irradiance as well as atmospheric optical properties such as aerosol or cloud optical depth from PV power measurements.
The temperature of photovoltaic modules is modelled as a dynamic function of ambient temperature, shortwave and longwave irradiance and wind speed, in order to allow for a more accurate characterisation of their efficiency. A simple dynamic thermal model is developed by extending an existing parametric steady-state model using an exponential smoothing kernel to include the effect of the heat capacity of the system. The four parameters of the model are fitted to measured data from three photovoltaic systems in the Allgäu region in Germany using non-linear optimisation. The dynamic model reduces the root-mean-square error between measured and modelled module temperature to 1.58 K on average, compared to 3.03 K for the steady-state model, whereas the maximum instantaneous error is reduced from 20.02 to 6.58 K.
This dataset contains data from two measurement campaigns in autumn 2018 and summer 2019 that were part of the BMWi project "MetPVNet", and serve as a supplement to the paper "Dynamic model of photovoltaic module temperature as a function of atmospheric conditions", published in the special edition of "Advances in Science and Research", the proceedings of the 19th EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2019.
Data are resampled to one minute, and include:
PV module temperature
Ambient temperature
Plane-of-array irradiance
Windspeed
Atmospheric thermal emission
The data were used for the dynamic temperature model, as presented in the paper
Incoming solar radiation is an important driver of our climate and weather. Several studies (see for instance Frank et al. 2018) have revealed discrepancies between ground-based irradiance measurements and the predictions of regional weather models. In the realm of electricity generation, accurate forecasts of solar photovoltaic (PV)energy yield are becoming indispensable for cost-effective grid operation: in Germany there are 1.6 million PVsystems installed, with a nominal power of 46 GW (Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft 2019). The proliferation of PV systems provides a unique opportunity to characterise global irradiance with unprecedented spatiotemporalresolution, which in turn will allow for highly resolved PV power forecasts.
In view of the rapid growth of solar power installations worldwide, accurate forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) power generation are becoming increasingly indispensable for the overall stability of the electricity grid. In the context of household energy storage systems, PV power forecasts contribute towards intelligent energy management and control of PV-battery systems, in particular so that self-sufficiency and battery lifetime are maximised. Typical battery control algorithms require day-ahead forecasts of PV power generation, and in most cases a combination of statistical methods and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are employed. The latter are however often inaccurate, both due to deficiencies in model physics as well as an insufficient description of irradiance variability.
The rapid increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations worldwide has resulted in the electricity grid becoming increasingly dependent on atmospheric conditions, thus requiring more accurate forecasts of incoming solar irradiance. In this context, measured data from PV systems are a valuable source of information about the optical properties of the atmosphere, in particular the cloud optical depth (COD). This work reports first results from an inversion algorithm developed to infer global, direct and diffuse irradiance as well as atmospheric optical properties from PV power measurements, with the goal of assimilating this information into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.
The electricity grid of the future will be built on renewable energy sources, which are highly variable and dependent on atmospheric conditions. In power grids with an increasingly high penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV), an accurate knowledge of the incoming solar irradiance is indispensable for grid operation and planning, and reliable irradiance forecasts are thus invaluable for energy system operators. In order to better characterise shortwave solar radiation in time and space, data from PV systems themselves can be used, since the measured power provides information about both irradiance and the optical properties of the atmosphere, in particular the cloud optical depth (COD). Indeed, in the European context with highly variable cloud cover, the cloud fraction and COD are important parameters in determining the irradiance, whereas aerosol effects are only of secondary importance.
Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in the Allgäu region in Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 min resolution along with a non-linear photovoltaic module temperature model, global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 5.79 W m−2 (7.35 W m−2) under clear (cloudy) skies, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 min power data with a linear temperature model the mean bias error is 5.88 and 41.87 W m−2 under clear and cloudy skies, respectively.
During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a 1D radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals and data from the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken-cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.
Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. Specifically, the aerosol (cloud) optical depth is inferred during clear sky (completely overcast) conditions. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in Allgäu, Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 minute resolution, the hourly global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 11.45 W m−2, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 minute power data the mean bias error is 16.39 W m−2.
During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a one-dimensional radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals as well as data from the COSMO weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and are properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.
This paper gives an overview of the development of Fair Trade in six European countries: Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. After the description of the food retail industry and its market structures in these countries, the main European Fair Trade organizations are analyzed regarding their role within the Fair Trade system. The following part deals with the development of Fair Trade sales in general and with respect to the products coffee, tea, bananas, fruit juice and sugar. An overview of the main activities of national Fair Trade organizations, e.g. public relation activities, completes the analysis. This study shows the enormous upswing of Fair Trade during the last decade and the reasons for this development. Nevertheless, it comes to the conclusion that Fair Trade is still far away from being an essential part of the food retail industry in Europe.
The cooperation between researchers and practitioners during the different stages of the research process is promoted as it can be of benefit to both society and research supporting processes of ‘transformation’. While acknowledging the important potential of research–practice–collaborations (RPCs), this paper reflects on RPCs from a political-economic perspective to also address potential unintended adverse effects on knowledge generation due to divergent interests, incomplete information or the unequal distribution of resources. Asymmetries between actors may induce distorted and biased knowledge and even help produce or exacerbate existing inequalities. Potential merits and limitations of RPCs, therefore, need to be gauged. Taking RPCs seriously requires paying attention to these possible tensions—both in general and with respect to international development research, in particular: On the one hand, there are attempts to contribute to societal change and ethical concerns of equity at the heart of international development research, and on the other hand, there is the relative risk of encountering asymmetries more likely.
Over the past two decades many governments of low and middle income countries have started to introduce social protection measures or to extend the coverage and improve the functioning of public social protection systems. These reforms are a "global phenomenon" and can be observed in many African, Asian and Latin American countries. This paper focuses on international determinants for policy change within social protection by assessing the state of the art of both policy diffusion and policy transfer studies. Empirical studies of policy transfer and diffusion in the field of social protection are furthermore assessed in light of the theoretical background.
The paper examines the effectiveness of transgovernmental policy networks as a governance structure for policy diffusion. The analysis is based on a survey including 50 social protection policy maker and technical practitioner who are country delegates to transgovernmental policy networks within the policy area of social protection. The paper provides anecdotal empirical evidence that policy networks contribute to policy diffusion by inducing mutual learning processes.
Political economic analyses of recent social protection reforms in Asian, African or Latin American countries have increased throughout the last few years. Yet, most contributions focus on one social protection mechanism only and do not provide a comparative approach across policy areas. In addition, most studies are empirical studies, with no or very limited theoretical linkages. The paper aims to explain multiple trajectories of social protection reform processes looking at cash transfers and social health protection policies in Kenya. It develops a taxonomy and suggest a conceptual framework to assess and explain reform dynamics across different social protection pillars. In order to allow for a more differentiated typology and enable us to understand different reform dynamics, the article uses the approach on gradual institutional change. While existing approaches to institutional change mostly focus on institutional change prompted by exogenous shocks or environmental shifts, this approach takes account of both, exogenous and endogenous sources of change.
Reliable and regional differentiated power forecasts are required to guarantee an efficient and economic energy transition towards renewable energies. Amongst other renewable energy technologies, e.g. wind mills, photovoltaic (PV) systems are an essential component of this transition being cost-efficient and simply to install. Reliable power forecasts are however required for a grid integration of photovoltaic systems, which among other data requires high-resolution spatio-temporal global irradiance data.
Reliable and regional differentiated power forecasts are required to guarantee an efficient and economic energy transition towards renewable energies. Amongst other renewable energy technologies, e.g. wind mills, photovoltaic systems are an essential component of this transition being cost-efficient and simply to install. Reliable power forecasts are however required for a grid integration of photovoltaic systems, which among other data requires high-resolution spatio-temporal global irradiance data. Hence the generation of robust reviewed global irradiance data is an essential contribution for the energy transition.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.
This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic end-to-end all-sky imager-based nowcasting with horizons of up to 30 min using an ImageNet pre-trained deep neural network. The method involves a two-stage approach. First, a backbone model is trained to estimate the irradiance from all-sky imager (ASI) images. The model is then extended and retrained on image and parameter sequences for forecasting. An open access data set is used for training and evaluation. We investigated the impact of simultaneously considering global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) on training time and forecast performance as well as the effect of adding parameters describing the irradiance variability proposed in the literature. The backbone model estimates current GHI with an RMSE and MAE of 58.06 and 29.33 W m−2, respectively. When extended for forecasting, the model achieves an overall positive skill score reaching 18.6 % compared to a smart persistence forecast. Minor modifications to the deterministic backbone and forecasting models enables the architecture to output an asymmetrical probability distribution and reduces training time while leading to similar errors for the backbone models. Investigating the impact of variability parameters shows that they reduce training time but have no significant impact on the GHI forecasting performance for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting while simultaneously forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI reduces the forecast performance.
The accurate forecasting of solar radiation plays an important role for predictive control applications for energy systems with a high share of photovoltaic (PV) energy. Especially off-grid microgrid applications using predictive control applications can benefit from forecasts with a high temporal resolution to address sudden fluctuations of PV-power. However, cloud formation processes and movements are subject to ongoing research. For now-casting applications, all-sky-imagers (ASI) are used to offer an appropriate forecasting for aforementioned application. Recent research aims to achieve these forecasts via deep learning approaches, either as an image segmentation task to generate a DNI forecast through a cloud vectoring approach to translate the DNI to a GHI with ground-based measurement (Fabel et al., 2022; Nouri et al., 2021), or as an end-to-end regression task to generate a GHI forecast directly from the images (Paletta et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2021). While end-to-end regression might be the more attractive approach for off-grid scenarios, literature reports increased performance compared to smart-persistence but do not show satisfactory forecasting patterns (Paletta et al., 2021). This work takes a step back and investigates the possibility to translate ASI-images to current GHI to deploy the neural network as a feature extractor. An ImageNet pre-trained deep learning model is used to achieve such translation on an openly available dataset by the University of California San Diego (Pedro et al., 2019). The images and measurements were collected in Folsom, California. Results show that the neural network can successfully translate ASI-images to GHI for a variety of cloud situations without the need of any external variables. Extending the neural network to a forecasting task also shows promising forecasting patterns, which shows that the neural network extracts both temporal and momentarily features within the images to generate GHI forecasts.