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The megatrends towards both a digital and a usership economy have changed entire markets in the past and will continue to do so over the next decades. In this work, we outline what this change means for possible futures of the mobility sector, taking the combination of trends in both economies into account. Using a sys-tematic, scenario-based trend analysis, we draft four general future scenarios and adapt the two most relevant scenarios to the automotive sector. Our findings show that combing the trends from both economies provides new insights that have often been neglected in literature because of an isolated view on digital technology only. However, service concepts such as self-driving car sharing or self-driving taxis have a great impact at various levels including microeconomic (e.g., service and product design, business models) and macroeconomic (e.g., with regard to ecological, economical, and social impacts). We give a brief outline of these issues and show which business mo dels could be successful in the most likely future scenarios, before we frame strategic implications for today’s automobile manufacturers.
Vehicle emissions have been identified as a cause of air pollution and one of the major reasons why air quality in many large German cities such as Berlin, Bonn, Hamburg, Cologne or Munich does not meet EU-wide limits. As a result, in the recent past, judicial driving bans on diesel vehicles have been imposed in many places since those vehicles emit critical pollutant groups. For the increasing urban population, the challenge is whether and how a change of the modal split in favor of the more environmentally and climate-friendly public transport can be achieved.
This paper presents the case of the Federal City of Bonn, one of five model cities sponsored by the German federal government that are testing measures to reduce traffic-related pollutant emissions by expanding the range of public transport services on offer. We present the results of a quantitative survey (N = 14,296) performed in the Bonn/Rhein-Sieg area and the neighboring municipalities as well as the ensuing logistic regressions confirming that a change in individual mobility behavior in favor of public transport is possible through expanding services. Our results show that individual traffic could be reduced, especially on the city's main traffic axes. To sustainably improve air quality, such services must be made permanently available.
Traditionally automotive UI focusses on the ergonomic design of controls and the user experience in the car. Bringing networked sensors into the car, connected cars can provide additional information to car drivers and owners, for and beyond the driving task. While there already are technological solutions, such as mobile applications commercially available, research on users’ information demands in such applications is scarce. We conducted four focus groups to uncover what kind of information users might be interested in to see on a second dashboard. Our findings show that besides control screens of todays’ dashboards, people are also interested in connected car services providing context information for a current driving situation and allowing strategic planning of driving safety or supporting car management when not driving. Our use cases inform the design of content for secondary dashboards for and especially beyond the driving context with a user perspective.
Shared Autonomous Vehicles: Potentials for a Sustainable Mobility and Risks of Unintended Effects
(2018)
Automated and connected cars could significantly reduce congestion and emissions through a more efficient flow of traffic and a reduction in the number of vehicles. An increase in demand for driving with autonomous vehicles is also conceivable due to higher comfort and improved quality of time using driverless cars. So far, empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis is missing. To analyze the influence of autonomous driving on mobility behavior and to uncover user preferences, which serve as an indicator for future travel mode choices, we conducted an online survey with a paired comparison of current and future travel modes with 302 German participants. The results do not confirm the hypothesis that ownership will become an outdated model in the future. Instead they suggest that private cars, whether traditional or fully automated, will remain the preferred travel mode. At the same time, carsharing will benefit from full automation more than private cars. However, findings indicate that the growth of carsharing will mainly be at the expense of public transport, showing that more effort should be placed in making public transportation more attractive if sustainable mobility is to be developed.
Companies often have difficulties determining which criteria to base their investment decisions in different countries on. When considering direct foreign investment several risk indices are available. The PCI (Peren-Clement-Index) in its original form was developed in 1998. Its further refinement improves the PCI in three major ways: First, it offers a dynamic adjustment of criteria and consideration of recent changes in the international environment. Second, it provides business specificities of a company or its industrial sector to be considered in addition to macroeconomic aspects by a two-dimensional presentation, which ensures a customized assessment. Third, the PCI allows for consolidating investment decisions by combining a resource-orientated with a market-oriented view. The PCI allows, unlike other indices, a customized and company-specific strategic planning process. Ultimately companies must take up both perspectives in the context of an international investment decision. The use of risk indices in corporate planning for assessing global investments decision creates a fundamentally new of risk assessment.
Digitisation has brought a major upheaval to the mobility sector, and in the future, self-driving cars will probably be one of the transport modes. This study extends transport and user acceptance research by analysing in greater depth how the new modes of autonomous private cars, autonomous carsharing and autonomous taxis fit into the existing traffic mix from today's perspective. It focuses on accounting for relative added value. For this purpose, user preference theory was used as a base for an online survey (n=172) on the relative added value of the new autonomous traffic modes. Results show that users see advantages in the autonomous modes for driving comfort and time utilization whereas, in comparison to conventional cars, in many other areas – especially in terms of driving pleasure and control – they see no advantages or even relative disadvantages. Compared to public transport, the autonomous modes offer added values in almost all characteristics. This analysis at the partwor th level provides a more detailed explanation for user acceptance of automated driving.
Within qualitative interviews we examine attitudes towards driverless cars in order to investigate new mobility services and explore the impact of such services on everyday mobility. We identified three main issues that we would like to discuss in the workshop: (I) Designing beyond a driver-centric approach; (II) Developing mobility services for cars which drive themselves; and (III) Exploring self-driving practices.