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Solar energy is one option to serve the rising global energy demand with low environmental Impact [1]. Building an energy system with a considerable share of solar power requires long-term investment and a careful investigation of potential sites. Therefore, understanding the impacts from varying regionally and locally determined meteorological conditions on solar energy production will influence energy yield projections. Clouds are moving on a short term timescale and have a high influence on the available solar radiation, as they absorb, reflect and scatter parts of the incoming light [2]. However, modeling photovoltaic (PV) power yields with a spectral resolution and local cloud information gives new insights on the atmospheric impact on solar energy.
Solar energy is one option to serve the rising global energy demand with low environmental impact.1 Building an energy system with a considerable share of solar power requires long-term investment and a careful investigation of potential sites. Therefore, understanding the impacts from varying regionally and locally determined meteorological conditions on solar energy production will influence energy yield projections. Clouds are moving on a short term timescale and have a high influence on the available solar radiation, as they absorb, reflect and scatter parts of the incoming light.2 However, the impact of cloudiness on photovoltaic power yields (PV) and cloud induced deviations from average yields might vary depending on the technology, location and time scale under consideration.
Reliable and regional differentiated power forecasts are required to guarantee an efficient and economic energy transition towards renewable energies. Amongst other renewable energy technologies, e.g. wind mills, photovoltaic systems are an essential component of this transition being cost-efficient and simply to install. Reliable power forecasts are however required for a grid integration of photovoltaic systems, which among other data requires high-resolution spatio-temporal global irradiance data. Hence the generation of robust reviewed global irradiance data is an essential contribution for the energy transition.
Aufgrund eines nahezu gleichlautenden Beschlusses des Kreistages im Rhein-Sieg-Kreis (RSK) und des Hauptausschusses der Stadt Bonn im Jahr 2011 wurden die jeweiligen Verwaltungen beauftragt, gemeinsam mit den Energieversorgern der Region ein Starthilfekonzept Elektromobilität zu entwickeln. In Folge dieses Beschlusses konstituierte sich Ende 2011 ein Arbeitskreis, der aus den Verwaltungen des Rhein-Sieg-Kreises und der Stadt Bonn, den Energieversorgern SWB Energie und Wasser, der Rhenag, den Stadtwerken Troisdorf, der Rheinenergie und den RWE besteht. Die inhaltlichen Schwerpunkte, die inzwischen in drei Arbeitskreisen behandelt werden, umfassen den Ausbau der Ladeinfrastruktur, die Öffentlichkeitsarbeit und die Bereitstellung von Strom aus regenerativen Quellen durch den Zubau entsprechender Anlagen in der Region. Während Maßnahmen zur Öffentlichkeitsarbeit und die Bereitstellung Grünen Stroms aus den Arbeitskreisen direkt bearbeitet und bewegt werden, ist dies aufgrund der Komplexität des Themas und der zahlreichen Einflussgrößen beim Ausbau der Ladeinfrastruktur nicht möglich. Daraus entstand die Überlegung einer Kooperation mit der Hochschule Bonn-Rhein-Sieg.
Solar energy is one option to serve the rising global energy demand with low environmental impact. Building an energy system with a considerable share of solar power requires long-term investment and a careful investigation of potential sites. Therefore, understanding the impacts from varying regionally and locally determined meteorological conditions on solar energy production will influence energy yield projections.
Solar energy plants are one of the key options to serve the rising global energy need with low environmental impact. Aerosols reduce global solar radiation due to absorption and scattering and therewith solar energy yields. Depending on the aerosol composition and size distribution they reduce the direct component of the solar radiation and modify the direction of the diffuse component compared to standard atmospheric conditions without aerosols.
Atmospheric aerosols affect the power production of solar energy systems. Their impact depends on both the atmospheric conditions and the solar technology employed. By being a region with a lack in power production and prone to high solar insolation, West Africa shows high potential for the application of solar power systems. However, dust outbreaks, containing high aerosol loads, occur especially in the Sahel, located between the Saharan desert in the north and the Sudanian Savanna in the south. They might affect the whole region for several days with significant effects on power generation. This study investigates the impact of atmospheric aerosols on solar energy production for the example year 2006 making use of six well instrumented sites in West Africa. Two different solar power technologies, a photovoltaic (PV) and a parabolic through (PT) power plant, are considered. The daily reduction of solar power due to aerosols is determined over mostly clear-sky days in 2006 with a model chain combining radiative transfer and technology specific power generation. For mostly clear days the local daily reduction of PV power (at alternating current) (PVAC) and PT power (PTP) due to the presence of aerosols lies between 13 % and 22 % and between 22 % and 37 %, respectively. In March 2006 a major dust outbreak occurred, which serves as an example to investigate the impact of an aerosol extreme event on solar power. During the dust outbreak, daily reduction of PVAC and PTP of up to 79 % and 100 % occur with a mean reduction of 20 % to 40 % for PVAC and of 32 % to 71 % for PTP during the 12 days of the event.
Impact of atmospheric aerosols on photovoltaic energy production - Scenario for the Sahel zone
(2017)
Photovoltaic (PV) energy is one option to serve the rising global energy need with low environmental impact. PV is of particular interest for local energy solutions in developing countries prone to high solar insolation. In order to assess the PV potential of prospective sites, combining knowledge of the atmospheric state modulating solar radiation and the PV performance is necessary. The present study discusses the PV power as function of atmospheric aerosols in the Sahel zone for clear-sky-days. Daily yields for a polycrystalline silicon PV module are reduced by up to 48 % depending on the climatologically-relevant aerosol abundances.
In 2011, the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development laid the foundation of the Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research [Hans-Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung (HErZ)] in order to better connect fundamental meteorological research and teaching at German universities and atmospheric research centers with the needs of the German national weather service Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The concept for HErZ was developed by DWD and its scientific advisory board with input from the entire German meteorological community. It foresees core research funding of about €2,000,000 yr−1 over a 12-yr period, during which time permanent research groups must be established and DWD subjects strengthened in the university curriculum. Five priority research areas were identified: atmospheric dynamics and predictability, data assimilation, model development, climate monitoring and diagnostics, and the optimal use of information from weather forecasting and climate monitoring for the benefit of society. Following an open call, five groups were selected for funding for the first 4-yr phase by an international review panel. A dual project leadership with one leader employed by the academic institute and the other by DWD ensures that research and teaching in HErZ is attuned to DWD needs and priorities, fosters a close collaboration with DWD, and facilitates the transfer of fundamental research into operations. In this article, we describe the rationale behind HErZ and the road to its establishment, present some scientific highlights from the initial five research groups, and discuss the merits and future development of this new concept to better link academic research with the needs and challenges of a national weather service.
Due to the policy goals for sustainable energy production, renewable energy plants such as photovoltaics are increasingly in use. The energy production from solar radiation depends strongly on atmospheric conditions. As the weather mostly changes, electrical power generation fluctuates, making technical planning and control of power grids to a complex problem.
Incoming solar radiation is an important driver of our climate and weather. Several studies (see for instance Frank et al. 2018) have revealed discrepancies between ground-based irradiance measurements and the predictions of regional weather models. In the realm of electricity generation, accurate forecasts of solar photovoltaic (PV)energy yield are becoming indispensable for cost-effective grid operation: in Germany there are 1.6 million PVsystems installed, with a nominal power of 46 GW (Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft 2019). The proliferation of PV systems provides a unique opportunity to characterise global irradiance with unprecedented spatiotemporalresolution, which in turn will allow for highly resolved PV power forecasts.
Photovoltaic (PV) power data are a valuable but as yet under-utilised resource that could be used to characterise global irradiance with unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. The resulting knowledge of atmospheric conditions can then be fed back into weather models and will ultimately serve to improve forecasts of PV power itself. This provides a data-driven alternative to statistical methods that use post-processing to overcome inconsistencies between ground-based irradiance measurements and the corresponding predictions of regional weather models (see for instance Frank et al., 2018). This work reports first results from an algorithm developed to infer global horizontal irradiance as well as atmospheric optical properties such as aerosol or cloud optical depth from PV power measurements.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.
The clear-sky radiative effect of aerosol-radiation interactions is of relevance for our understanding of the climate system. The influence of aerosol on the surface energy budget is of high interest for the renewable energy sector. In this study, the radiative effect is investigated in particular with respect to seasonal and regional variations for the region of Germany and the year 2015 at the surface and top of atmosphere using two complementary approaches.
First, an ensemble of clear-sky models which explicitly consider aerosols is utilized to retrieve the aerosol optical depth and the surface direct radiative effect of aerosols by means of a clear sky fitting technique. For this, short-wave broadband irradiance measurements in the absence of clouds are used as a basis. A clear sky detection algorithm is used to identify cloud free observations. Considered are measurements of the shortwave broadband global and diffuse horizontal irradiance with shaded and unshaded pyranometers at 25 stations across Germany within the observational network of the German Weather Service (DWD). Clear sky models used are MMAC, MRMv6.1, METSTAT, ESRA, Heliosat-1, CEM and the simplified Solis model. The definition of aerosol and atmospheric characteristics of the models are examined in detail for their suitability for this approach.
Second, the radiative effect is estimated using explicit radiative transfer simulations with inputs on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, trace-gases and aerosol from CAMS reanalysis. The aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo and assymetrie parameter) are first evaluated with AERONET direct sun and inversion products. The largest inconsistency is found for the aerosol absorption, which is overestimated by about 0.03 or about 30 % by the CAMS reanalysis. Compared to the DWD observational network, the simulated global, direct and diffuse irradiances show reasonable agreement within the measurement uncertainty. The radiative kernel method is used to estimate the resulting uncertainty and bias of the simulated direct radiative effect. The uncertainty is estimated to −1.5 ± 7.7 and 0.6 ± 3.5 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively, while the annual-mean biases at the surface, top of atmosphere and total atmosphere are −10.6, −6.5 and 4.1 W m−2, respectively.
The retrieval of the aerosol radiative effect with the clear sky models shows a high level of agreement with the radiative transfer simulations, with an RMSE of 5.8 W m−2 and a correlation of 0.75. The annual mean of the REari at the surface for the 25 DWD stations shows a value of −12.8 ± 5 W m−2 as average over the clear sky models, compared to −11 W m−2 from the radiative transfer simulations. Since all models assume a fixed aerosol characterisation, the annual cycle of the aerosol radiation effect cannot be reproduced. Out of this set of clear sky models, the largest level of agreement is shown by the ESRA and MRMv6.1 models.
In diesem Paper wird ein Modell eines Photovoltaik(PV)-Diesel-Hybrid-Systems aufgebaut. Dieses System besitzt neben einer PV-Anlage einen Batteriespeicher und ist an das öffentliche Stromnetz angeschlossen. Bei einem Ausfall aller drei Energiequellen stellt ein Dieselgenerator die Stromversorgung sicher. Mit Hilfe des erstellten Modells wird der Einfluss der unterschiedlichen Jahreszeiten und Wetterbedingungen auf den PV-Ertrag und das gesamte System im Zeitraum von Februar 2016 bis Februar 2017 untersucht. Die Messdaten dafür stammen von einem Krankenhaus in Akwatia, Ghana. Das Krankenhaus besitzt bereits eine PV-Anlage und einen Dieselgenerator als Backup.
Ein weiterer Aspekt der Untersuchung ist der Einfluss der Stromausfälle, die in dieser Region häufig vorkommen, auf den Einsatz des Generators.
Resultat der Untersuchung ist die Relevanz saisonaler und infrastruktureller Einflüsse auf die Betriebsweise des Systems. Mit Hilfe des erstellten Modells wurde analysiert, dass besonders während der Regenzeit im August die PV-Leistung sinkt und folglich viel Energie durch das öffentliche Stromnetz und den Generator bereitgestellt werden muss. Ein weiterer signifikanter Einbruch im PV-Ertrag ist zur Zeit des Harmattans im Januar zu verzeichnen.
Motivation: With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems, the need for forecasts at the distribution level increases. Forecasts of distributed generation (DG) units and power flow forecasts of relevant distribution nodes are already required for capacity planning at the transmission level. In Germany, the upcoming redispatch 2.0 procedure will require forecasting at the distribution level. This paper evaluates the benefits of using advanced PV forecasts in predictive congestion management.
In contrast to the German power supply, the energy supply in many West African countries is very unstable. Frequent power outages are not uncommon. Especially for critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, a stable power supply is vital. To compensate for the power outages, diesel generators are often used. In the future, these systems will increasingly be supplemented by PV systems and storage, so that the generator will have to be used less or not at all when needed. For the design and operation of such systems, it is necessary to better understand the atmospheric variability of PV power generation. For example, there are large variations between rainy and dry seasons, between days with high and low dust levels - caused by sandstorms (harmattan) or urban air pollution.
Long-term variability of solar irradiance and its implications for photovoltaic power in West Africa
(2020)
West Africa is one of the least developed regions in the world regarding the energy availability and energy security. Located close to the equator West Africa receives high amounts of global horizontal irradiance (GHI). Thus, solar power and especially photovoltaic (PV) systems seem to be a promising solution to provide electricity with low environmental impact. To plan and to dimension a PV power system climatological data for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and its variability need to be taken into account. However, ground based measurements of irradiances are not available continuously and cover only a few discrete locations.
