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The clear-sky radiative effect of aerosol-radiation interactions is of relevance for our understanding of the climate system. The influence of aerosol on the surface energy budget is of high interest for the renewable energy sector. In this study, the radiative effect is investigated in particular with respect to seasonal and regional variations for the region of Germany and the year 2015 at the surface and top of atmosphere using two complementary approaches.
First, an ensemble of clear-sky models which explicitly consider aerosols is utilized to retrieve the aerosol optical depth and the surface direct radiative effect of aerosols by means of a clear sky fitting technique. For this, short-wave broadband irradiance measurements in the absence of clouds are used as a basis. A clear sky detection algorithm is used to identify cloud free observations. Considered are measurements of the shortwave broadband global and diffuse horizontal irradiance with shaded and unshaded pyranometers at 25 stations across Germany within the observational network of the German Weather Service (DWD). Clear sky models used are MMAC, MRMv6.1, METSTAT, ESRA, Heliosat-1, CEM and the simplified Solis model. The definition of aerosol and atmospheric characteristics of the models are examined in detail for their suitability for this approach.
Second, the radiative effect is estimated using explicit radiative transfer simulations with inputs on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, trace-gases and aerosol from CAMS reanalysis. The aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo and assymetrie parameter) are first evaluated with AERONET direct sun and inversion products. The largest inconsistency is found for the aerosol absorption, which is overestimated by about 0.03 or about 30 % by the CAMS reanalysis. Compared to the DWD observational network, the simulated global, direct and diffuse irradiances show reasonable agreement within the measurement uncertainty. The radiative kernel method is used to estimate the resulting uncertainty and bias of the simulated direct radiative effect. The uncertainty is estimated to −1.5 ± 7.7 and 0.6 ± 3.5 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively, while the annual-mean biases at the surface, top of atmosphere and total atmosphere are −10.6, −6.5 and 4.1 W m−2, respectively.
The retrieval of the aerosol radiative effect with the clear sky models shows a high level of agreement with the radiative transfer simulations, with an RMSE of 5.8 W m−2 and a correlation of 0.75. The annual mean of the REari at the surface for the 25 DWD stations shows a value of −12.8 ± 5 W m−2 as average over the clear sky models, compared to −11 W m−2 from the radiative transfer simulations. Since all models assume a fixed aerosol characterisation, the annual cycle of the aerosol radiation effect cannot be reproduced. Out of this set of clear sky models, the largest level of agreement is shown by the ESRA and MRMv6.1 models.
In diesem Paper wird ein Modell eines Photovoltaik(PV)-Diesel-Hybrid-Systems aufgebaut. Dieses System besitzt neben einer PV-Anlage einen Batteriespeicher und ist an das öffentliche Stromnetz angeschlossen. Bei einem Ausfall aller drei Energiequellen stellt ein Dieselgenerator die Stromversorgung sicher. Mit Hilfe des erstellten Modells wird der Einfluss der unterschiedlichen Jahreszeiten und Wetterbedingungen auf den PV-Ertrag und das gesamte System im Zeitraum von Februar 2016 bis Februar 2017 untersucht. Die Messdaten dafür stammen von einem Krankenhaus in Akwatia, Ghana. Das Krankenhaus besitzt bereits eine PV-Anlage und einen Dieselgenerator als Backup.
Ein weiterer Aspekt der Untersuchung ist der Einfluss der Stromausfälle, die in dieser Region häufig vorkommen, auf den Einsatz des Generators.
Resultat der Untersuchung ist die Relevanz saisonaler und infrastruktureller Einflüsse auf die Betriebsweise des Systems. Mit Hilfe des erstellten Modells wurde analysiert, dass besonders während der Regenzeit im August die PV-Leistung sinkt und folglich viel Energie durch das öffentliche Stromnetz und den Generator bereitgestellt werden muss. Ein weiterer signifikanter Einbruch im PV-Ertrag ist zur Zeit des Harmattans im Januar zu verzeichnen.
In contrast to the German power supply, the energy supply in many West African countries is very unstable. Frequent power outages are not uncommon. Especially for critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, a stable power supply is vital. To compensate for the power outages, diesel generators are often used. In the future, these systems will increasingly be supplemented by PV systems and storage, so that the generator will have to be used less or not at all when needed. For the design and operation of such systems, it is necessary to better understand the atmospheric variability of PV power generation. For example, there are large variations between rainy and dry seasons, between days with high and low dust levels - caused by sandstorms (harmattan) or urban air pollution.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.
In view of the rapid growth of solar power installations worldwide, accurate forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) power generation are becoming increasingly indispensable for the overall stability of the electricity grid. In the context of household energy storage systems, PV power forecasts contribute towards intelligent energy management and control of PV-battery systems, in particular so that self-sufficiency and battery lifetime are maximised. Typical battery control algorithms require day-ahead forecasts of PV power generation, and in most cases a combination of statistical methods and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are employed. The latter are however often inaccurate, both due to deficiencies in model physics as well as an insufficient description of irradiance variability.
Photovoltaic (PV) power data are a valuable but as yet under-utilised resource that could be used to characterise global irradiance with unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. The resulting knowledge of atmospheric conditions can then be fed back into weather models and will ultimately serve to improve forecasts of PV power itself. This provides a data-driven alternative to statistical methods that use post-processing to overcome inconsistencies between ground-based irradiance measurements and the corresponding predictions of regional weather models (see for instance Frank et al., 2018). This work reports first results from an algorithm developed to infer global horizontal irradiance as well as atmospheric optical properties such as aerosol or cloud optical depth from PV power measurements.
In the research project "MetPVNet", both, the forecast-based operation management in distribution grids and as well as the forecasts of the feed-in of PV-power from decentralized plants could be improved on the basis of satellite data and numerical weather forecasts. Based on a detailed network analyses for a real medium-voltage grid area, it was shown that both – the integration of forecast data based on satellite and weather data and the improvement of subsequent day forecasts based on numerical weather models – have a significant added value for forecast-based congestion management or redispatch and reactive power management in the distribution grid. Furthermore, forecast improvements for the forecast model of the German Weather Service were achieved by assimilating visible satellite imagery, and cloud and radiation products from satellites were improved, thus improving the database for short-term forecasting as well as for assimilation. In addition, several methods have been developed that will enable forecast improvement in the future, especially for weather situations with high cloud induced variability and high forecast errors. This article summarizes the most important project results.
The rapid increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations worldwide has resulted in the electricity grid becoming increasingly dependent on atmospheric conditions, thus requiring more accurate forecasts of incoming solar irradiance. In this context, measured data from PV systems are a valuable source of information about the optical properties of the atmosphere, in particular the cloud optical depth (COD). This work reports first results from an inversion algorithm developed to infer global, direct and diffuse irradiance as well as atmospheric optical properties from PV power measurements, with the goal of assimilating this information into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.
West Africa has a great potential for the application of solar energy systems, as it combines high levels of solar irradiance with a lack of energy production. Southern West Africa is a region with a very high aerosol load. Urbanization, uncontrolled fires, traffic as well as power plants and oil rigs lead to increasing anthropogenic emissions. The naturally circulating north winds bring mineral dust from the Sahel and Sahara and monsoons - sea salt and other oceanic compounds from the south. The EU-funded Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project (2014–2018), dlivered the most complete dataset of the atmosphere over the region to date. In our study, we use in-situ measured optical properties of aerosols from the airborne campaign over the Gulf of Guinea and inland, and from ground measurements in coastal cities.
In den Atmosphärenwissenschaften spielt die Strahlungsbilanz der Erde eine wichtige Rolle für unser Verständnis des Klimasystems. Hier liefern ausgereifte Satellitenprodukte dekadische Klimazeitreihen mit einer so hohen Genauigkeit, dass z.B. Änderungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Klimawandel detektiert werden können. Dies gilt insbesondere auch für die solaren Strahlungsflüsse an der Erdoberfläche. Beim Vergleich dieser Satellitenprodukte mit instantanen Beobachtungen der Strahlung am Erdboden sind jedoch oft erhebliche Abweichungen feststellbar, die hauptsächlich durch kleinskalige Variabilität in der räumlichen Struktur von Wolken und ihrer Strahlungswirkung verursacht werden. Hier ist auch zu bedenken, dass Bodenbeobachtungen fast einer Punktmessung entsprechen, während Satellitenpixel eine Fläche in der Größenordnung von Quadratkilometern abtasten.
Anhand detaillierter Netzanalysen für ein reales Mittelspannungsnetzgebiet konnte gezeigt werden, dass sowohl die Einbindung von Prognosedaten auf Basis von Satelliten und Wetterdaten, als auch die Verbesserung von Folgetagsprognosen auf der Basis numerischer Wettermodelle einen deutlichen Mehrwert für ein prognosebasiertes Engpassmanagement bzw. Redispatch und Blindleistungsmanagement im Verteilnetz aufweisen. Auch Kurzfristprognosen auf der Basis von Satellitendaten haben einen positiven Effekt. Ein weiterer wichtiger Mehrwert des Projektes ist auch die Rückmeldung der kritischen Prognosesituationen aus Sicht der Anwendungsfälle, so dass wie bereits im Projekt gezeigt und darüber hinaus, Prognosen zielgerichteter auf die Anwendung im Verteilnetzbetrieb ausgelegt und optimiert werden können.
Weiterhin konnten Prognoseverbesserungen für das Vorhersagemodell des Deutschen Wetterdienstes durch die Assimilation von sichtbaren Satellitenbildern erreicht werden. Darüber hinaus wurden Wolken- und Strahlungsprodukte aus Satelliten verbessert und somit die Datenbasis für die Kurzfristprognose als auch für die Assimilation.
Darüber hinaus wurden verschiedene Methoden entwickelt, die zukünftig zu einer weiteren Prognoseverbesserung, insbesondere für Wettersituationen mit hohen Prognosefehlern, führen könnten. Solche Situationen wurden aus Sicht des Netzbetriebs und mithilfe von satellitenbasierten Analysen der Gesamtwetterlage für die Perioden der MetPVNet Messkampagnen identifiziert. Hierbei handelte es sich insbesondere um Situationen mit starker oder stark wechselhafter Bewölkung.
Für die MetPVNet Messkampagnen wurde auf der Basis eines Trainingsdatensatzes und in Abhängigkeit der Variabilitätsklasse die Abweichung der bodennahen Einstrahlung von Satellitendaten oder von Strahlungsprognosen quantifiziert. Diese Art der Informationen bietet zukünftig die Möglichkeit zur Bewertung der Prognosegüte.
The clear-sky radiative effect of aerosol–radiation interactions is of relevance for our understanding of the climate system. The influence of aerosol on the surface energy budget is of high interest for the renewable energy sector. In this study, the radiative effect is investigated in particular with respect to seasonal and regional variations for the region of Germany and the year 2015 at the surface and top of atmosphere using two complementary approaches.
First, an ensemble of clear-sky models which explicitly consider aerosols is utilized to retrieve the aerosol optical depth and the surface direct radiative effect of aerosols by means of a clear-sky fitting technique. For this, short-wave broadband irradiance measurements in the absence of clouds are used as a basis. A clear-sky detection algorithm is used to identify cloud-free observations. Considered are measurements of the short-wave broadband global and diffuse horizontal irradiance with shaded and unshaded pyranometers at 25 stations across Germany within the observational network of the German Weather Service (DWD). The clear-sky models used are the Modified MAC model (MMAC), the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM) v6.1, the Meteorological–Statistical solar radiation model (METSTAT), the European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA), Heliosat-1, the Center for Environment and Man solar radiation model (CEM), and the simplified Solis model. The definition of aerosol and atmospheric characteristics of the models are examined in detail for their suitability for this approach.
Second, the radiative effect is estimated using explicit radiative transfer simulations with inputs on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, trace gases and aerosol from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis. The aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter) are first evaluated with AERONET direct sun and inversion products. The largest inconsistency is found for the aerosol absorption, which is overestimated by about 0.03 or about 30 % by the CAMS reanalysis. Compared to the DWD observational network, the simulated global, direct and diffuse irradiances show reasonable agreement within the measurement uncertainty. The radiative kernel method is used to estimate the resulting uncertainty and bias of the simulated direct radiative effect. The uncertainty is estimated to −1.5 ± 7.7 and 0.6 ± 3.5 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively, while the annual-mean biases at the surface, top of atmosphere and total atmosphere are −10.6, −6.5 and 4.1 W m−2, respectively.
The retrieval of the aerosol radiative effect with the clear-sky models shows a high level of agreement with the radiative transfer simulations, with an RMSE of 5.8 W m−2 and a correlation of 0.75. The annual mean of the REari at the surface for the 25 DWD stations shows a value of −12.8 ± 5 W m−2 as the average over the clear-sky models, compared to −11 W m−2 from the radiative transfer simulations. Since all models assume a fixed aerosol characterization, the annual cycle of the aerosol radiation effect cannot be reproduced. Out of this set of clear-sky models, the largest level of agreement is shown by the ESRA and MRM v6.1 models.