333.7 Natürliche Ressourcen, Energie und Umwelt
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In addition to the long-term goal of mitigating climate change, the current geopolitical upheavals heighten the urgency to transform Europe's energy system. This involves expanding renewable energies while managing intermittent electricity generation. Hydrogen is a promising solution to balance generation and demand, simultaneously decarbonizing complex applications. To model the energy system's transformation, the project TransHyDE-Sys, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, takes an integrated approach beyond traditional energy system analysis, incorporating a diverse range of more detailed methods and tools. Herein, TransHyDE-Sys is situated within the recent policy discussion. It addresses the requirements for energy system modeling to gain insights into transforming the European hydrogen and energy infrastructure. It identifies knowledge gaps in the existing literature on hydrogen infrastructure-oriented energy system modeling and presents the research approach of TransHyDE-Sys. TransHyDE-Sys analyzes the development of hydrogen and energy infrastructures from “the system” and “the stakeholder” perspectives. The integrated modeling landscape captures temporal and spatial interactions among hydrogen, electricity, and natural gas infrastructure, providing comprehensive insights for systemic infrastructure planning. This allows a more accurate representation of the energy system's dynamics and aids in decision-making for achieving sustainable and efficient hydrogen network development integration.
Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in the Allgäu region in Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 min resolution along with a non-linear photovoltaic module temperature model, global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 5.79 W m−2 (7.35 W m−2) under clear (cloudy) skies, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 min power data with a linear temperature model the mean bias error is 5.88 and 41.87 W m−2 under clear and cloudy skies, respectively.
During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a 1D radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals and data from the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken-cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.
Estimates of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from reanalysis and satellite-based data are the most important information for the design and monitoring of PV systems in Africa, but their quality is unknown due to the lack of in situ measurements. In this study, we evaluate the performance of hourly GHI from state-of-the-art reanalysis and satellite-based products (ERA5, CAMS, MERRA-2, and SARAH-2) with 37 quality-controlled in situ measurements from novel meteorological networks established in Burkina Faso and Ghana under different weather conditions for the year 2020. The effects of clouds and aerosols are also considered in the analysis by using common performance measures for the main quality attributes and a new overall performance value for the joint assessment. The results show that satellite data performs better than reanalysis data under different atmospheric conditions. Nevertheless, both data sources exhibit significant bias of more than 150 W/m2 in terms of RMSE under cloudy skies compared to clear skies. The new measure of overall performance clearly shows that the hourly GHI derived from CAMS and SARAH-2 could serve as viable alternative data for assessing solar energy in the different climatic zones of West Africa.
Approximately 45% of global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the construction and use of buildings. Thermal insulation of buildings in the current context of climate change is a well-known strategy to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. The development of renewable insulation material can overcome the drawbacks of widely used insulation systems based on polystyrene or mineral wool. This study analyzes the sustainability and thermal conductivity of new insulation materials made of Miscanthus x giganteus fibers, foaming agents, and alkali-activated fly ash binder. Life cycle assessments (LCA) are necessary to perform benchmarking of environmental impacts of new formulations of geopolymer-based insulation materials. The global warming potential (GWP) of the product is primarily determined by the main binder component sodium silicate. Sodium silicate's CO2 emissions depend on local production, transportation, and energy consumption. The results, which have been published during recent years, vary in a wide range from 0.3 kg to 3.3 kg CO2-eq. kg-1. The overall GWP of the insulation system based on Miscanthus fibers, with properties according to current thermal insulation regulations, reaches up to 95% savings of CO2 emissions compared to conventional systems. Carbon neutrality can be achieved through formulations containing raw materials with carbon dioxide emissions and renewable materials with negative GWP, thus balancing CO2 emissions.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.