Prof. Dr. Stefanie Meilinger
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Departments, institutes and facilities
- Internationales Zentrum für Nachhaltige Entwicklung (IZNE) (57)
- Institut für Technik, Ressourcenschonung und Energieeffizienz (TREE) (56)
- Fachbereich Ingenieurwissenschaften und Kommunikation (54)
- Fachbereich Informatik (5)
- Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften (3)
- Institut für KI und Autonome Systeme (A2S) (1)
- Zentrum für Innovation und Entwicklung in der Lehre (ZIEL) (1)
Document Type
- Conference Object (34)
- Article (26)
- Report (5)
- Research Data (3)
- Preprint (3)
- Part of a Book (2)
- Contribution to a Periodical (2)
- Lecture (2)
- Working Paper (2)
- Diploma Thesis (1)
Year of publication
Keywords
- West Africa (6)
- energy meteorology (4)
- Global horizontal irradiance (3)
- AOD (2)
- COD (2)
- Distribution grid management (2)
- Energiemeteorologie (2)
- Erzeugungsprognose (2)
- Forecasting (2)
- Ghana (2)
Accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for integrating solar energy into the power grid and operating solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with its solar radiation extension (WRF-Solar) has been used to forecast solar irradiance in different regions around the world. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model to the prediction of GHI in West Africa, particularly Ghana, has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for predicting GHI in Ghana, focusing on three automatic weather stations (Akwatia, Kumasi and Kologo) for the year 2021. We used two one-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate the ability of the fully coupled WRF-Solar model to forecast GHI up to 72-hour ahead under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF high-resolution operational forecasts. Our findings reveal that the WRF-Solar model performs better under clear skies than cloudy skies. Under clear skies, Kologo performed best in predicting 72-hour GHI, with a first day nRMSE of 9.62 %. However, forecasting GHI under cloudy skies at all three sites had significant uncertainties. Additionally, WRF-Solar model is able to reproduce the observed GHI diurnal cycle under high AOD conditions in most of the selected days. This study enhances the understanding of the WRF-Solar model’s capabilities and limitations for GHI forecasting in West Africa, particularly in Ghana. The findings provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management in the region.
This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic end-to-end all-sky imager-based nowcasting with horizons of up to 30 min using an ImageNet pre-trained deep neural network. The method involves a two-stage approach. First, a backbone model is trained to estimate the irradiance from all-sky imager (ASI) images. The model is then extended and retrained on image and parameter sequences for forecasting. An open access data set is used for training and evaluation. We investigated the impact of simultaneously considering global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) on training time and forecast performance as well as the effect of adding parameters describing the irradiance variability proposed in the literature. The backbone model estimates current GHI with an RMSE and MAE of 58.06 and 29.33 W m−2, respectively. When extended for forecasting, the model achieves an overall positive skill score reaching 18.6 % compared to a smart persistence forecast. Minor modifications to the deterministic backbone and forecasting models enables the architecture to output an asymmetrical probability distribution and reduces training time while leading to similar errors for the backbone models. Investigating the impact of variability parameters shows that they reduce training time but have no significant impact on the GHI forecasting performance for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting while simultaneously forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI reduces the forecast performance.
Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is crucial for the integration of solar energy into the power grid, power system planning, and the operation of solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with its solar radiation (WRF-Solar) extension, has been used to forecast solar irradiance in various regions worldwide. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting in West Africa, specifically in Ghana, has not been studied. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for GHI forecasting in Ghana, focusing on 3 health centers (Kologo, Kumasi and Akwatia) for the year 2021. We applied a two one-way nested domain (D1=15 km and D2=3 km) to investigate the ability of the WRF solar model to forecast GHI up to 72 hours in advance under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF operational forecasts. In addition, the optical aerosol depth (AOD) data at 550 nm from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) were considered. The study uses statistical metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model with the observational data obtained from automatic weather stations in the three health centers in Ghana. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of the WRF-Solar model for forecasting GHI in West Africa, particularly in Ghana, and provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management of in the region.
Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in the Allgäu region in Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 min resolution along with a non-linear photovoltaic module temperature model, global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 5.79 W m−2 (7.35 W m−2) under clear (cloudy) skies, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 min power data with a linear temperature model the mean bias error is 5.88 and 41.87 W m−2 under clear and cloudy skies, respectively.
During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a 1D radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals and data from the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken-cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.
Estimates of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from reanalysis and satellite-based data are the most important information for the design and monitoring of PV systems in Africa, but their quality is unknown due to the lack of in situ measurements. In this study, we evaluate the performance of hourly GHI from state-of-the-art reanalysis and satellite-based products (ERA5, CAMS, MERRA-2, and SARAH-2) with 37 quality-controlled in situ measurements from novel meteorological networks established in Burkina Faso and Ghana under different weather conditions for the year 2020. The effects of clouds and aerosols are also considered in the analysis by using common performance measures for the main quality attributes and a new overall performance value for the joint assessment. The results show that satellite data performs better than reanalysis data under different atmospheric conditions. Nevertheless, both data sources exhibit significant bias of more than 150 W/m2 in terms of RMSE under cloudy skies compared to clear skies. The new measure of overall performance clearly shows that the hourly GHI derived from CAMS and SARAH-2 could serve as viable alternative data for assessing solar energy in the different climatic zones of West Africa.
Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. Specifically, the aerosol (cloud) optical depth is inferred during clear sky (completely overcast) conditions. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in Allgäu, Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 minute resolution, the hourly global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 11.45 W m−2, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 minute power data the mean bias error is 16.39 W m−2.
During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a one-dimensional radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals as well as data from the COSMO weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and are properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.
In her recent article, Bender discusses several aspects of research–practice–collaborations (RPCs). In this commentary, we apply Bender's arguments to experiences in engineering research and development (R&D). We investigate the influence of interaction with practice partners on relevance, credibility, and legitimacy in the special engineering field of product development and analyze which methodological approaches are already being pursued for dealing with diverging interests and asymmetries and which steps will be necessary to include interests of civil society beyond traditional customer relations.