CLIENT II - Verbundvorhaben EnerSHelf: Energieversorgung für Gesundheitseinrichtungen in Ghana; Teilvorhaben Entwicklung und Analyse technischer Lösungen im länderspezifischen politisch-ökonomischen Kontext (DE/BMBF/03SF0567A)
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Analyzing the consequences of power factor degradation in grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems
(2024)
This study examines the impact of integrating solar photovoltaic (PV) systems on power factor (PF) within low-voltage radial distribution networks, using empirical data from the Energy Self-Sufficiency for Health Facilities in Ghana (EnerSHelF) project sites in Ghana. The research included simulations focusing on optimal PV integration, with and without PF considerations, and the strategic placement of PV and shunt capacitors (SC). Three scenarios evaluated PV injection at high-load demand nodes, achieving penetration levels of 85.00 percent, 82.88 percent with high voltage drop, and 100.00 percent with high loss nodes. Additionally, three scenarios assessed SC allocation methods: proportional to the node's reactive power demand (Scenario I), even distribution (Scenario II), and proportional to installed PV capacity at PV nodes (Scenario III).
The analysis used a twin-objective index (TOI), combining voltage deviations and power factor degradation. Results showed significant PV curtailment was necessary to achieve standard PF. Optimal penetration levels, considering TOI, reduced PV penetration from 85.00 percent to 63.75 percent, 82.88 percent to 57.38 percent, and 100.00 percent to 72.50 percent for high load, high voltage drops, and high loss nodes, respectively. Notably, all scenarios showed a concerning PF of 0.00 at dead-end nodes (P20, P21, P22).
Scenario I achieved PF ranges of -0.26 to 1.00 with PV at high load, -0.69 to 1.00 with PV at high voltage drop, and 0.95 to 1.00 with PV at high loss nodes. Scenario II produced similar ranges, -0.48 to 1.00, -1.00 to 0.99, and 0.30 to 0.96, with PV placement at high load, voltage drops, and loss nodes, respectively. Scenario III yielded ranges of -0.19 to 0.97 (high load), -0.23 to 1.00 (high voltage drop), and 0.86 to 0.96 (high losses).
The study concluded that the most effective strategy involves installing PVs at high-loss nodes and distributing SCs proportionally to the node's reactive power demand (Scenario I). This approach achieved a more uniform PF pattern throughout the network, highlighting the practical implications of strategic PV placement and targeted reactive power compensation for maintaining a healthy and efficient distribution system with solar PV integration.
Interdisciplinary research (IDR) is a widely applied research approach, combing the efforts of multiple academic disciplines to work on complex problems. Within transdisciplinary research (TDR), non-academic stakeholders participate in the project and offer hands-on experience to the research. These integrative approaches are praised for the ability for addressing ‘wicked problems’ and can lead to new perspectives on relevant contemporary challenges. This working paper is analysing the cooperation and exchange of involved disciplines in the German-Ghanaian interdisciplinary research project Energy-Self-Sufficiency for Health Facilities in Ghana (EnerSHelF). The results are presented in a Collaboration Frequency Network (CFN) as well as qualitatively examined to unravel the level of interaction and perspectives on chances and challenges of IDR and TDR. The analysis shows that disciplinary closeness, data collection and exchange, and individual effort are affecting the level of collaboration among other reasons. Concluding the authors develop recommendations for future IDR and TDR projects.
Accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for integrating solar energy into the power grid and operating solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with its solar radiation extension (WRF-Solar) has been used to forecast solar irradiance in different regions around the world. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model to the prediction of GHI in West Africa, particularly Ghana, has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for predicting GHI in Ghana, focusing on three automatic weather stations (Akwatia, Kumasi and Kologo) for the year 2021. We used two one-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate the ability of the fully coupled WRF-Solar model to forecast GHI up to 72-hour ahead under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF high-resolution operational forecasts. Our findings reveal that the WRF-Solar model performs better under clear skies than cloudy skies. Under clear skies, Kologo performed best in predicting 72-hour GHI, with a first day nRMSE of 9.62 %. However, forecasting GHI under cloudy skies at all three sites had significant uncertainties. Additionally, WRF-Solar model is able to reproduce the observed GHI diurnal cycle under high AOD conditions in most of the selected days. This study enhances the understanding of the WRF-Solar model’s capabilities and limitations for GHI forecasting in West Africa, particularly in Ghana. The findings provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management in the region.
This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic end-to-end all-sky imager-based nowcasting with horizons of up to 30 min using an ImageNet pre-trained deep neural network. The method involves a two-stage approach. First, a backbone model is trained to estimate the irradiance from all-sky imager (ASI) images. The model is then extended and retrained on image and parameter sequences for forecasting. An open access data set is used for training and evaluation. We investigated the impact of simultaneously considering global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) on training time and forecast performance as well as the effect of adding parameters describing the irradiance variability proposed in the literature. The backbone model estimates current GHI with an RMSE and MAE of 58.06 and 29.33 W m−2, respectively. When extended for forecasting, the model achieves an overall positive skill score reaching 18.6 % compared to a smart persistence forecast. Minor modifications to the deterministic backbone and forecasting models enables the architecture to output an asymmetrical probability distribution and reduces training time while leading to similar errors for the backbone models. Investigating the impact of variability parameters shows that they reduce training time but have no significant impact on the GHI forecasting performance for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting while simultaneously forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI reduces the forecast performance.
In the last two decades, studies that analyse the political economy of sustainable energy transitions have increasingly become available. Yet very few attempts have been made to synthesize the factors discussed in the growing literature. This paper reviews the extant empirical literature on the political economy of sustainable energy transitions. Using a well-defined search strategy, a total of 36 empirical contributions covering the period 2008 to 2022 are reviewed full text. Overall, the findings highlight the role of vested interest, advocacy coalitions and green constituencies, path dependency, external shocks, policy and institutional environment, political institutions and fossil fuel resource endowments as major political economy factors influencing sustainable energy transitions across both high income countries, and low and middle income countries. In addition, the paper highlights and discusses some critical knowledge gaps in the existing literature and provides suggestions for a future research agenda.
Intention: Within the research project EnerSHelF (Energy-Self-Sufficiency for Health Facilities in Ghana), i. a. energy-meteorological and load-related measurement data are collected, for which an overview of the availability is to be presented on a poster.
Context: In Ghana, the total electricity consumed has almost doubled between 2008 and 2018 according to the Energy Commission of Ghana. This goes along with an unstable power grid, resulting in power outages whenever electricity consumption peaks. The blackouts called "dumsor" in Ghana, pose a severe burden to the healthcare sector. Innovative solutions are needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy and health access.
West Africa has great potential for the use of solar energy systems, as it has both a high solar radiation rate and a lack of energy production. West Africa is a very aerosol-rich region, whose effects on photovoltaic (PV) use are due to both atmospheric conditions and existing solar technology. This study reports the variability of aerosol optical properties in the city of Koforidua, Ghana over the period 2016 to 2020, and their impact on the radiation intensity and efficiency of a PV cell. The study used AERONET ground (Giles et al., 2019) and satellite data produced by CAMS (Gschwind, et al., 2019), which both provide aerosol optical depth (AOD) and metrological parameters used for radiative transfer calculations with libRadtran (Emde, et al., 2016). A spectrally resolved PV model (Herman-Czezuch et al., 2022) is then used to calculate the PV yield of two PV technologies: polycrystalline and amorphous silicon. It is observed that for both data sets, the aerosol is mainly composed of dust and organic matter, with a very increased AOD load during the harmattan period (December-February), also due to the fires observed during this period.
In contrast to the German power supply, the energy supply in many West African countries is very unstable. Frequent power outages are not uncommon. Especially for critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, a stable power supply is vital. To compensate for the power outages, diesel generators are often used. In the future, these systems will increasingly be supplemented by PV systems and storage, so that the generator will have to be used less or not at all when needed. For the design and operation of such systems, it is necessary to better understand the atmospheric variability of PV power generation. For example, there are large variations between rainy and dry seasons, between days with high and low dust levels - caused by sandstorms (harmattan) or urban air pollution.
In diesem Paper wird ein Modell eines Photovoltaik(PV)-Diesel-Hybrid-Systems aufgebaut. Dieses System besitzt neben einer PV-Anlage einen Batteriespeicher und ist an das öffentliche Stromnetz angeschlossen. Bei einem Ausfall aller drei Energiequellen stellt ein Dieselgenerator die Stromversorgung sicher. Mit Hilfe des erstellten Modells wird der Einfluss der unterschiedlichen Jahreszeiten und Wetterbedingungen auf den PV-Ertrag und das gesamte System im Zeitraum von Februar 2016 bis Februar 2017 untersucht. Die Messdaten dafür stammen von einem Krankenhaus in Akwatia, Ghana. Das Krankenhaus besitzt bereits eine PV-Anlage und einen Dieselgenerator als Backup.
Ein weiterer Aspekt der Untersuchung ist der Einfluss der Stromausfälle, die in dieser Region häufig vorkommen, auf den Einsatz des Generators.
Resultat der Untersuchung ist die Relevanz saisonaler und infrastruktureller Einflüsse auf die Betriebsweise des Systems. Mit Hilfe des erstellten Modells wurde analysiert, dass besonders während der Regenzeit im August die PV-Leistung sinkt und folglich viel Energie durch das öffentliche Stromnetz und den Generator bereitgestellt werden muss. Ein weiterer signifikanter Einbruch im PV-Ertrag ist zur Zeit des Harmattans im Januar zu verzeichnen.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.
