Open Access

G. Koch, H. Wernli, S. Buss, J. Staehelin, T. Peter, M. A. Liniger, S. Meilinger

• For the winter 1999/2000 transport of air masses out of the vortex to mid-latitudes and ozone destruction inside and outside the northern polar vortex is studied to quantify the impact of earlier winter (before March) polar ozone destruction on mid-latitude ozone. Nearly 112 000 trajectories are started on 1 December 1999 on 6 different potential temperature levels between 500–600 K and for a subset of these trajectories photo-chemical box-model calculations are performed. We linked a decline of −0.9% of mid-latitude ozone in this layer occurring in January and February 2000 to ozone destruction inside the vortex and successive transport of these air masses to mid-latitudes. Further, the impact of denitrification, PSC-occurrence and anthropogenic chlorine loading on future stratospheric ozone is determined by applying various scenarios. Lower stratospheric temperatures and denitrification were found to play the most important role in the future evolution of polar ozone depletion.