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In view of the rapid growth of solar power installations worldwide, accurate forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) power generation are becoming increasingly indispensable for the overall stability of the electricity grid. In the context of household energy storage systems, PV power forecasts contribute towards intelligent energy management and control of PV-battery systems, in particular so that self-sufficiency and battery lifetime are maximised. Typical battery control algorithms require day-ahead forecasts of PV power generation, and in most cases a combination of statistical methods and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are employed. The latter are however often inaccurate, both due to deficiencies in model physics as well as an insufficient description of irradiance variability.
Photovoltaic (PV) power data are a valuable but as yet under-utilised resource that could be used to characterise global irradiance with unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. The resulting knowledge of atmospheric conditions can then be fed back into weather models and will ultimately serve to improve forecasts of PV power itself. This provides a data-driven alternative to statistical methods that use post-processing to overcome inconsistencies between ground-based irradiance measurements and the corresponding predictions of regional weather models (see for instance Frank et al., 2018). This work reports first results from an algorithm developed to infer global horizontal irradiance as well as atmospheric optical properties such as aerosol or cloud optical depth from PV power measurements.
The electricity grid of the future will be built on renewable energy sources, which are highly variable and dependent on atmospheric conditions. In power grids with an increasingly high penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV), an accurate knowledge of the incoming solar irradiance is indispensable for grid operation and planning, and reliable irradiance forecasts are thus invaluable for energy system operators. In order to better characterise shortwave solar radiation in time and space, data from PV systems themselves can be used, since the measured power provides information about both irradiance and the optical properties of the atmosphere, in particular the cloud optical depth (COD). Indeed, in the European context with highly variable cloud cover, the cloud fraction and COD are important parameters in determining the irradiance, whereas aerosol effects are only of secondary importance.