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In this paper, a gas-to-power (GtoP) system for power outages is digitally modeled and experimentally developed. The design includes a solid-state hydrogen storage system composed of TiFeMn as a hydride forming alloy (6.7 kg of alloy in five tanks) and an air-cooled fuel cell (maximum power: 1.6 kW). The hydrogen storage system is charged under room temperature and 40 bar of hydrogen pressure, reaching about 110 g of hydrogen capacity. In an emergency use case of the system, hydrogen is supplied to the fuel cell, and the waste heat coming from the exhaust air of the fuel cell is used for the endothermic dehydrogenation reaction of the metal hydride. This GtoP system demonstrates fast, stable, and reliable responses, providing from 149 W to 596 W under different constant as well as dynamic conditions. A comprehensive and novel simulation approach based on a network model is also applied. The developed model is validated under static and dynamic power load scenarios, demonstrating excellent agreement with the experimental results.
The clear-sky radiative effect of aerosol-radiation interactions is of relevance for our understanding of the climate system. The influence of aerosol on the surface energy budget is of high interest for the renewable energy sector. In this study, the radiative effect is investigated in particular with respect to seasonal and regional variations for the region of Germany and the year 2015 at the surface and top of atmosphere using two complementary approaches.
First, an ensemble of clear-sky models which explicitly consider aerosols is utilized to retrieve the aerosol optical depth and the surface direct radiative effect of aerosols by means of a clear sky fitting technique. For this, short-wave broadband irradiance measurements in the absence of clouds are used as a basis. A clear sky detection algorithm is used to identify cloud free observations. Considered are measurements of the shortwave broadband global and diffuse horizontal irradiance with shaded and unshaded pyranometers at 25 stations across Germany within the observational network of the German Weather Service (DWD). Clear sky models used are MMAC, MRMv6.1, METSTAT, ESRA, Heliosat-1, CEM and the simplified Solis model. The definition of aerosol and atmospheric characteristics of the models are examined in detail for their suitability for this approach.
Second, the radiative effect is estimated using explicit radiative transfer simulations with inputs on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, trace-gases and aerosol from CAMS reanalysis. The aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo and assymetrie parameter) are first evaluated with AERONET direct sun and inversion products. The largest inconsistency is found for the aerosol absorption, which is overestimated by about 0.03 or about 30 % by the CAMS reanalysis. Compared to the DWD observational network, the simulated global, direct and diffuse irradiances show reasonable agreement within the measurement uncertainty. The radiative kernel method is used to estimate the resulting uncertainty and bias of the simulated direct radiative effect. The uncertainty is estimated to −1.5 ± 7.7 and 0.6 ± 3.5 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively, while the annual-mean biases at the surface, top of atmosphere and total atmosphere are −10.6, −6.5 and 4.1 W m−2, respectively.
The retrieval of the aerosol radiative effect with the clear sky models shows a high level of agreement with the radiative transfer simulations, with an RMSE of 5.8 W m−2 and a correlation of 0.75. The annual mean of the REari at the surface for the 25 DWD stations shows a value of −12.8 ± 5 W m−2 as average over the clear sky models, compared to −11 W m−2 from the radiative transfer simulations. Since all models assume a fixed aerosol characterisation, the annual cycle of the aerosol radiation effect cannot be reproduced. Out of this set of clear sky models, the largest level of agreement is shown by the ESRA and MRMv6.1 models.
The clear-sky radiative effect of aerosol–radiation interactions is of relevance for our understanding of the climate system. The influence of aerosol on the surface energy budget is of high interest for the renewable energy sector. In this study, the radiative effect is investigated in particular with respect to seasonal and regional variations for the region of Germany and the year 2015 at the surface and top of atmosphere using two complementary approaches.
First, an ensemble of clear-sky models which explicitly consider aerosols is utilized to retrieve the aerosol optical depth and the surface direct radiative effect of aerosols by means of a clear-sky fitting technique. For this, short-wave broadband irradiance measurements in the absence of clouds are used as a basis. A clear-sky detection algorithm is used to identify cloud-free observations. Considered are measurements of the short-wave broadband global and diffuse horizontal irradiance with shaded and unshaded pyranometers at 25 stations across Germany within the observational network of the German Weather Service (DWD). The clear-sky models used are the Modified MAC model (MMAC), the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM) v6.1, the Meteorological–Statistical solar radiation model (METSTAT), the European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA), Heliosat-1, the Center for Environment and Man solar radiation model (CEM), and the simplified Solis model. The definition of aerosol and atmospheric characteristics of the models are examined in detail for their suitability for this approach.
Second, the radiative effect is estimated using explicit radiative transfer simulations with inputs on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, trace gases and aerosol from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis. The aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter) are first evaluated with AERONET direct sun and inversion products. The largest inconsistency is found for the aerosol absorption, which is overestimated by about 0.03 or about 30 % by the CAMS reanalysis. Compared to the DWD observational network, the simulated global, direct and diffuse irradiances show reasonable agreement within the measurement uncertainty. The radiative kernel method is used to estimate the resulting uncertainty and bias of the simulated direct radiative effect. The uncertainty is estimated to −1.5 ± 7.7 and 0.6 ± 3.5 W m−2 at the surface and top of atmosphere, respectively, while the annual-mean biases at the surface, top of atmosphere and total atmosphere are −10.6, −6.5 and 4.1 W m−2, respectively.
The retrieval of the aerosol radiative effect with the clear-sky models shows a high level of agreement with the radiative transfer simulations, with an RMSE of 5.8 W m−2 and a correlation of 0.75. The annual mean of the REari at the surface for the 25 DWD stations shows a value of −12.8 ± 5 W m−2 as the average over the clear-sky models, compared to −11 W m−2 from the radiative transfer simulations. Since all models assume a fixed aerosol characterization, the annual cycle of the aerosol radiation effect cannot be reproduced. Out of this set of clear-sky models, the largest level of agreement is shown by the ESRA and MRM v6.1 models.
Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.
In the research project "MetPVNet", both, the forecast-based operation management in distribution grids and as well as the forecasts of the feed-in of PV-power from decentralized plants could be improved on the basis of satellite data and numerical weather forecasts. Based on a detailed network analyses for a real medium-voltage grid area, it was shown that both – the integration of forecast data based on satellite and weather data and the improvement of subsequent day forecasts based on numerical weather models – have a significant added value for forecast-based congestion management or redispatch and reactive power management in the distribution grid. Furthermore, forecast improvements for the forecast model of the German Weather Service were achieved by assimilating visible satellite imagery, and cloud and radiation products from satellites were improved, thus improving the database for short-term forecasting as well as for assimilation. In addition, several methods have been developed that will enable forecast improvement in the future, especially for weather situations with high cloud induced variability and high forecast errors. This article summarizes the most important project results.
The temperature of photovoltaic modules is modelled as a dynamic function of ambient temperature, shortwave and longwave irradiance and wind speed, in order to allow for a more accurate characterisation of their efficiency. A simple dynamic thermal model is developed by extending an existing parametric steady-state model using an exponential smoothing kernel to include the effect of the heat capacity of the system. The four parameters of the model are fitted to measured data from three photovoltaic systems in the Allgäu region in Germany using non-linear optimisation. The dynamic model reduces the root-mean-square error between measured and modelled module temperature to 1.58 K on average, compared to 3.03 K for the steady-state model, whereas the maximum instantaneous error is reduced from 20.02 to 6.58 K.
The accurate forecasting of solar radiation plays an important role for predictive control applications for energy systems with a high share of photovoltaic (PV) energy. Especially off-grid microgrid applications using predictive control applications can benefit from forecasts with a high temporal resolution to address sudden fluctuations of PV-power. However, cloud formation processes and movements are subject to ongoing research. For now-casting applications, all-sky-imagers (ASI) are used to offer an appropriate forecasting for aforementioned application. Recent research aims to achieve these forecasts via deep learning approaches, either as an image segmentation task to generate a DNI forecast through a cloud vectoring approach to translate the DNI to a GHI with ground-based measurement (Fabel et al., 2022; Nouri et al., 2021), or as an end-to-end regression task to generate a GHI forecast directly from the images (Paletta et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2021). While end-to-end regression might be the more attractive approach for off-grid scenarios, literature reports increased performance compared to smart-persistence but do not show satisfactory forecasting patterns (Paletta et al., 2021). This work takes a step back and investigates the possibility to translate ASI-images to current GHI to deploy the neural network as a feature extractor. An ImageNet pre-trained deep learning model is used to achieve such translation on an openly available dataset by the University of California San Diego (Pedro et al., 2019). The images and measurements were collected in Folsom, California. Results show that the neural network can successfully translate ASI-images to GHI for a variety of cloud situations without the need of any external variables. Extending the neural network to a forecasting task also shows promising forecasting patterns, which shows that the neural network extracts both temporal and momentarily features within the images to generate GHI forecasts.
Solar energy is one option to serve the rising global energy demand with low environmental Impact [1]. Building an energy system with a considerable share of solar power requires long-term investment and a careful investigation of potential sites. Therefore, understanding the impacts from varying regionally and locally determined meteorological conditions on solar energy production will influence energy yield projections. Clouds are moving on a short term timescale and have a high influence on the available solar radiation, as they absorb, reflect and scatter parts of the incoming light [2]. However, modeling photovoltaic (PV) power yields with a spectral resolution and local cloud information gives new insights on the atmospheric impact on solar energy.
Anhand detaillierter Netzanalysen für ein reales Mittelspannungsnetzgebiet konnte gezeigt werden, dass sowohl die Einbindung von Prognosedaten auf Basis von Satelliten und Wetterdaten, als auch die Verbesserung von Folgetagsprognosen auf der Basis numerischer Wettermodelle einen deutlichen Mehrwert für ein prognosebasiertes Engpassmanagement bzw. Redispatch und Blindleistungsmanagement im Verteilnetz aufweisen. Auch Kurzfristprognosen auf der Basis von Satellitendaten haben einen positiven Effekt. Ein weiterer wichtiger Mehrwert des Projektes ist auch die Rückmeldung der kritischen Prognosesituationen aus Sicht der Anwendungsfälle, so dass wie bereits im Projekt gezeigt und darüber hinaus, Prognosen zielgerichteter auf die Anwendung im Verteilnetzbetrieb ausgelegt und optimiert werden können.
Weiterhin konnten Prognoseverbesserungen für das Vorhersagemodell des Deutschen Wetterdienstes durch die Assimilation von sichtbaren Satellitenbildern erreicht werden. Darüber hinaus wurden Wolken- und Strahlungsprodukte aus Satelliten verbessert und somit die Datenbasis für die Kurzfristprognose als auch für die Assimilation.
Darüber hinaus wurden verschiedene Methoden entwickelt, die zukünftig zu einer weiteren Prognoseverbesserung, insbesondere für Wettersituationen mit hohen Prognosefehlern, führen könnten. Solche Situationen wurden aus Sicht des Netzbetriebs und mithilfe von satellitenbasierten Analysen der Gesamtwetterlage für die Perioden der MetPVNet Messkampagnen identifiziert. Hierbei handelte es sich insbesondere um Situationen mit starker oder stark wechselhafter Bewölkung.
Für die MetPVNet Messkampagnen wurde auf der Basis eines Trainingsdatensatzes und in Abhängigkeit der Variabilitätsklasse die Abweichung der bodennahen Einstrahlung von Satellitendaten oder von Strahlungsprognosen quantifiziert. Diese Art der Informationen bietet zukünftig die Möglichkeit zur Bewertung der Prognosegüte.
Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is crucial for the integration of solar energy into the power grid, power system planning, and the operation of solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with its solar radiation (WRF-Solar) extension, has been used to forecast solar irradiance in various regions worldwide. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting in West Africa, specifically in Ghana, has not been studied. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for GHI forecasting in Ghana, focusing on 3 health centers (Kologo, Kumasi and Akwatia) for the year 2021. We applied a two one-way nested domain (D1=15 km and D2=3 km) to investigate the ability of the WRF solar model to forecast GHI up to 72 hours in advance under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF operational forecasts. In addition, the optical aerosol depth (AOD) data at 550 nm from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) were considered. The study uses statistical metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model with the observational data obtained from automatic weather stations in the three health centers in Ghana. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of the WRF-Solar model for forecasting GHI in West Africa, particularly in Ghana, and provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management of in the region.
Accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for integrating solar energy into the power grid and operating solar power plants. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with its solar radiation extension (WRF-Solar) has been used to forecast solar irradiance in different regions around the world. However, the application of the WRF-Solar model to the prediction of GHI in West Africa, particularly Ghana, has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model for predicting GHI in Ghana, focusing on three automatic weather stations (Akwatia, Kumasi and Kologo) for the year 2021. We used two one-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate the ability of the fully coupled WRF-Solar model to forecast GHI up to 72-hour ahead under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were taken from the ECMWF high-resolution operational forecasts. Our findings reveal that the WRF-Solar model performs better under clear skies than cloudy skies. Under clear skies, Kologo performed best in predicting 72-hour GHI, with a first day nRMSE of 9.62 %. However, forecasting GHI under cloudy skies at all three sites had significant uncertainties. Additionally, WRF-Solar model is able to reproduce the observed GHI diurnal cycle under high AOD conditions in most of the selected days. This study enhances the understanding of the WRF-Solar model’s capabilities and limitations for GHI forecasting in West Africa, particularly in Ghana. The findings provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation and grid integration towards optimized management in the region.
Fundamentals of Energy Meteorology - Influence of atmospheric parameters on solar energy production
(2015)
This thesis contributes to a better understanding of the effect of heterogeneous chemistry on ozone in the tropopause region. As part of the German research project ALTO, it especially focuses on the impact of aircraft emissions on heterogeneous ozone chemistry in this region. This is an important question as ozone is a strong greenhouse gas, whose radiative effect, is strongest near the tropopause.
In general, the treatment of heterogeneous processes on background and aviation-produced particles requires the consideration of processes ranging from nanometer to continental scale. For this reason the present modeling work includes a treatment of small scale processes as well as the development and subsequent application of parameterisations. Three numerical trajectory box models considering highly detailed microphysical and chemical processes have been developed: (a) an aircraft plume model including coagulation, chemistry and plume dilution, (b) a particle-size resolved microphysical box model and, (c) a comprehensive photo-chemical box model.
Reliable and regional differentiated power forecasts are required to guarantee an efficient and economic energy transition towards renewable energies. Amongst other renewable energy technologies, e.g. wind mills, photovoltaic systems are an essential component of this transition being cost-efficient and simply to install. Reliable power forecasts are however required for a grid integration of photovoltaic systems, which among other data requires high-resolution spatio-temporal global irradiance data. Hence the generation of robust reviewed global irradiance data is an essential contribution for the energy transition.
Reliable and regional differentiated power forecasts are required to guarantee an efficient and economic energy transition towards renewable energies. Amongst other renewable energy technologies, e.g. wind mills, photovoltaic (PV) systems are an essential component of this transition being cost-efficient and simply to install. Reliable power forecasts are however required for a grid integration of photovoltaic systems, which among other data requires high-resolution spatio-temporal global irradiance data.